Topic: PC sales to see worst fall in history

[Clive]

The global PC industry will suffer its 'sharpest decline in history' in 2009, as overall demand for PCs falls by 11.9 percent compared with 2008, according to analysts at Gartner.

The new low beats the previous record decline of just 3.2 percent, which took place in 2001. According to a statement from Gartner, both emerging and mature markets are forecast "to suffer unprecedented market slowdowns".

The worst previously recorded performance in emerging market PC sales was growth of 11.1 percent in 2002, but in 2009 they will see contraction of 10.4 percent. Mature market sales had a record fall of 7.9 percent in 2001, but this year they will fall by 13 percent, Gartner said.

One relatively bright spot has been the success of netbooks, which are forecast to total 21 million units in 2009 — almost double the 2008 figure of 11.7 million. Netbooks will "cushion the overall PC market slowdown, but they remain too few to prevent the market's steep decline," the Gartner report said.

Netbooks are forecast to represent eight percent of PC shipments in 2009.

Gartner senior analyst Angela McIntyre said in a statement that "mature markets continue to be the primary consumers of [netbooks] but as prices continue to fall, they are likely to attract increasing numbers of emerging market buyers".

All PC suppliers will struggle over the coming months, said Gartner senior analyst Ranjit Atwal. "It will come down to... how exposed they are and in which markets," he said.

"If you look at HP, they look in better shape than some because they are spread between the home and the business markets," Atwal told ZDNet UK on Monday. "But if you look at Dell, they have a big dependency on certain markets and particularly the UK market."

Atwal said particular manufacturers' responses to the decline depended on their relative exposure to the PC market. "Some of them like Toshiba, Sony and others are not dependent on the PC market," he pointed out. "They have the option, and I am not saying they would, just to get out if it is not worthwhile anymore."

[Simon]

I guess it was inevitable, not only because of the recession, but also due to the fact that most people who want one, have already got one, and it's not something the average user would replace year on year.

[Reno]

It'll go back up. The bulk of pc sales come from the business and government sectors. To be able to compete they both like to be cutting edge. That means upgrading every 3 or 4 years. Over here in the states big organizations get tax breaks for donating their old computers to schools, churches etc. Wait till windows 7 comes out. By that time the gobal economy will be perking up and people will have the money to invest in new hardware.

[GillE]

I wish I could share your optimism, Bob.  The enormous debts governments have incurred all over the world will lead to public expenditure being slashed at the earliest opportunity.  The IT industry will be very fortunate if those tax concessions are allowed to continue.

When's Windows 7 scheduled to be released?  At the end of this year?  I can't see the economic downturn ending by then .  A sign of the times is the HSBC bank's rights issue to raise capital so that it will be able to snap up businesses at bargain prices as the economy worsens.  I'm reading the economy as being in a downturn or stagnant for several years.

[Simon]

Would I be right in thinking that even if there was an upturn in the US economy, it would take a while to filter through to the UK and Europe?

I don't know whether to think of the HSBC issue as a good or bad thing.  I was thinking of transferring some savings to them, but I'm not so sure now.

[Rik]

If you're not already with the Nationwide, they have some of the best results around and a very low risk level.

[Simon]

I have a foot in the door at NW, as I had one of their 0% credit cards, which I used, then paid off.  I'm probably not what they see as a favoured customer. 

[Rik]

That wouldn't matter as a saver, check their site for rates (you need to open a FlexAccount if you want an e-Bond).

[Simon]

I'll check it out, but not really sure that there would be much benefit in moving.

[Clive]

Don't talk to me about credit cards!  I've just returned from KwikFit after having a bill for £877 which TWO of my credit cards refused to accept.  The one card is almost empty and the other one  is completely empty.  I ended up having to pay with my debit card and even that warranted a phone call for authorization.  When I phoned Capital One they reckoned that KwikFit had given the wrong expiry date but that was not true because I heard him say it correctly.   

[Rik]

Card companies are putting stops on all sorts of transactions these days, Clive, to protect themselves from fraud. I recently made a series of purchases from Amazon so phone Barclaycard to tell them what was going on. They still stopped the card twice more. 

[Simon]

Christ alive, what did you have Kwik Fitted?     Is this on the Jag?

[Clive]

My feeling is that they don't want to lend the money out.  But they have lost their 2% comission so that can't be doing their business any good.  I could have had a whole month to come to terms with the fact my car has cost £877 for new brakes and tyres.   

[Simon]

Wow!   

[Clive]

To be fair it's done 40,000 miles now which is pretty good for a set of pads and discs.  The tyres cost £112 each and I needed 4.  One was illegal and the other 3 were 1mm above legal.  They had an offer on of 4 tyres for 3 so it seemed sensible to take them up on that.  It always surprises me that tyres which seem perfectly OK when the car is sat on the drive become clapped out as soon as the car is up on the ramp!