Topic: An astronomical perspective on climate change

[sam]

Ice cores and deep sea bed cores provide the best available record of changes in global temperature and CO2 content of the atmosphere going back 800,000 years. The data shows a clear periodicity in global temperatures which is thought to be linked to the Milankovitch cycle.

http://www.universetoday.com/2009/11/30/an-astronomical-perspective-on-climate-change/

[GillE]

That's exactly the sort of data that the IPCC does not seem able to refute with observed data.

It's interesting to see the article claim that "CO2 levels aren’t declining".  I've seen data produced by the Mauna Loa observatory interpreted by some scientists to prove this point, whereas other scientists have used exactly the same data to prove the opposite!  Yet the data only goes back to 1959, which is not long enough to be meaningful when it is being compared to the Vostok ice core.

[sam]

It's interesting to see the article claim that "CO2 levels aren’t declining".  I've seen data produced by the Mauna Loa observatory interpreted by some scientists to prove this point, whereas other scientists have used exactly the same data to prove the opposite!  Yet the data only goes back to 1959, which is not long enough to be meaningful when it is being compared to the Vostok ice core.

indeed, its so difficult to make any meaningful conclusions from such short datasets when the climate probably changes over much longer timescales. Still though, some of them are trying todo their best.. but we could never get away with some of the statements in astronomical papers.... it seems that they like to avoid proper statistics..

[Clive]

and the Milankovitch cycle causes the amount of Sun's heat to vary over a period of many millenia.  It used to be talked about a great deal in the '80's when the Sun's alleged brown dwarf companion star was supposed to cause hundreds of comets to collide with Earth and destroy all life. 

[GillE]

Today it has been announced that the Antarctic ice is going to melt so much more rapidly than previously anticipated that sea levels will rise by four and a half feet over the next century, more than twice the previous forecast.

This confirms how difficult it is for scientists to predict climate change.  In six months, they might be saying something completely contrary.  Hmmm... perhaps we should have scientists employed to predict climate scientist change as well as climate change.

[Rik]

 

Great idea. Medical advice is just as variable.

[GillE]

Back to eating salt again, eh Rik?  Having gone to so much trouble to find alternatives, it was always on the cards.

[Simon]

Today it has been announced that the Antarctic ice is going to melt so much more rapidly than previously anticipated that sea levels will rise by four and a half feet over the next century, more than twice the previous forecast.

This confirms how difficult it is for scientists to predict climate change.  In six months, they might be saying something completely contrary.  Hmmm... perhaps we should have scientists employed to predict climate scientist change as well as climate change.

Doesn't it all basically mean no one knows? 

[Clive]

Doesn't it all basically mean no one knows? 

No one knows what scientsts will predict next Simon.  But you can guarantee that other scientists will predict the opposite within a week or so!   

[Simon]

Exactly!  All they each seem to be doing is keeping each other in work!   

[Clive]

And the media encourages it as it keeps them in work too!

[Simon]

So, all global warning is doing, is keeping boffins in a job!   

[Clive]

But of course!   

[Simon]

 

[sam]

and the Milankovitch cycle causes the amount of Sun's heat to vary over a period of many millenia.  It used to be talked about a great deal in the '80's when the Sun's alleged brown dwarf companion star was supposed to cause hundreds of comets to collide with Earth and destroy all life. 

oh yeah, lol, 2012... better watch out for the reappearance of some stupid conjecture.